July 13, 2012

Winter 2012-2013 Forecast

After the mild winter we just suffered through, when forecasters were mostly in agreement on a brutal winter 2011-2012, a warm winter was caused by the lack of a Greenland blocking high pressure, a positive arctic oscillation, an abnormally cold Stratosphere and many other exceptional issues.  

Forecasters are in discussion of a much more brutal winter 2012-2013 with more East Coast storms than normal. A Greenland block is now developing which typically digs cold air into the eastern USA.

So we could see snow and cold starting in November because when Earth comes out of a La Nina it can feature a cold and/or very snowy winter the coming winter or the next.  We can only hope for that setup or worse like what happened for the winter of 1976-77 and 1903-04, two of the coldest winters ever.  A moderate El Nino pattern is developing which could cause storms to come in through California and cross the southern states on a strong subtropical jet stream which is a pattern that could bring some good winter to the whole country.  We need a negative arctic oscillation (very cold air moving south) for storms to move up the East coast with cold air injected into them for a supercharged winter with abundant cold and moisture.

Due to the warm temperatures east of the Rockies last season, we had a heating season that was in two parts.  The first part was good and the second part was very, very bad.  Everything in the heating business was fairly normal into December because people were remembering the past few bad winters.

So far forecasts are showing cold and snow in the Midwest and Northeast:

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/forum/2012/07/23/new-official-2012-2013-united-states-winter-forecast/

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/09/official-2012-2013-winter-forecast_8.html

Snowmaggedon possible: USA's second-oldest almanac predicting heavy snowstorms winter 2012-2013 in mid-Atlantic region:
http://www.fredericknewspost.com/sections/news/display.htm?storyID=140288#.UEi64OVmyoY

The Weather Channel 2012-2013 winter forecast also predicts a cold winter for the northeast & Great Lakes: http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/news-41/top-stories-169/seasonal-outlook-a-harsh-winter-30224

Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter Weather Forecast for 2012-2013 says much colder & above normal snow Midwest & East Coast: http://www.almanac.com/content/long-range-winter-weather-forecast-2012-2013-season

http://snowday1.wordpress.com/2012/09/16/winter-forecast-2012-2013/

And in case you are skeptical after last winter, when all the worlds weathermen and computers failed miserably, here is a forecast from a 16 year old kid.  It’s a super cold & snowy winter for northeastern USA. Very, very similar to the 1977 winter where Carter called out the national guard and shut down most of the government for a week. You know things are getting interesting when a 16 year old weatherman drops a super cold & snowy bombshell forecast, with graphics, for the eastern USA winter 2012-2013:

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